Land registry house prices sold data shows that house prices are falling faster than reported. Average house prices data for the month of September 2023, shows year-on-year house price falls of up to 15%. When factoring in property type, falls in some regions were as high as 35% down compared to September 2022.
Recent reports from prominent house price indices suggest improvements in the year-on-year trends. This has generated a new sense of optimism for the UK housing market. However, an examination of raw data unveils an alternative reality of deepening house price falls. In this article, I’ll delve into the disparities between the optimistic projections presented by indices and the unprocessed Land Registry data. Which compares average house prices in September 2023 with those in September 2022 across various regions and property types in the UK.
The Land Registry house prices sold data reveals notable changes in average prices. This raw government data points towards a deepening housing market crash. A far cry from the Nationwide and Halifax house price indices, which recently suggested the worst is over for the UK housing market.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice and you are responsible for your own financial decisions. I am not a mortgage broker or advisor and I don’t give financial advice! Please consult professional advice before making any kind of mortgage decision.
UK House Price Indices Report House Price Increases
UK house prices, as tracked by Halifax, saw a 1.1% increase in October, ending a six-month decline. The rise was attributed to a shortage of available properties. Prices remain lower than a year ago, with a cautious attitude among sellers leading to low housing supply. Halifax anticipates further price declines this year but expects a return to growth in 2025.
Nationwide also reported that UK house prices unexpectedly rose by 0.9% in October. According to their house price index the increase was the largest since March 2022. This increase was also attributed to a shortage of homes on the market. Despite the monthly rise, the average property value was down 3.3% compared to the same month last year. According to Nationwide the average price of a UK property was £259,423 at the end of October.
Read: The Truth About The October 2023 Nationwide House Price Index
Year On Year House Price Falls Are Much Deeper Than Reported
In my previous article, I unpicked the Nationwide House Price index. Detailing the factors which may cause their index to be distorted. In this article, I want to breakdown the unprocessed raw data, to show year on year house prices. Using raw Land Registry data we can see that year-on-year house price falls are much deeper than reported by the Nationwide and Halifax HPIs.
Using HM Land Registry Price Paid Data I’ve been able to review the average house price, for sold properties. I’ve split this out by region and property type to provide insights into house price falls in the UK. Initial data from the Land Registry shows that the average UK house price is currently -12% down compared to last year. With regional variations of -1% to -16% and property type variations of +10% to -35%.
Due to the time lag in reported sales, this is just a sample of 2023 September sales. This contains 5427 completed transactions in September 2023, which I have compared to the 71082 sales reported for September 2022. This does still provide a strong indication of deeper than reported house price falls. You can also find out which towns and city’s are experiencing the greatest falls with this UK house price map.
Read: Why A Complete Housing Price Crash In 2024 Is Now Inevitable
Regional & Property Type Variations
The Land Registry average house prices sold data, highlights some regional insights. The report, created in November 2023, compares average house prices in September 2023 with those in September 2022 across various regions and property types in the UK. The data reveals notable changes in average prices:
East Anglia: While overall average prices decreased by 7%, the decline was most pronounced in terraced houses, dropping by 31%. Detached houses also saw a significant decrease of 13%.
East Midlands: The 3% decrease in overall average prices was largely driven by a substantial 22% drop in semi-detached house prices. Detached houses also experienced an 8% decline.
Greater London: Despite a 5% increase in semi-detached house prices, the overall market saw a significant 15% decrease. Detached houses were particularly affected, with a notable decline of 35%.
North: The North region experienced an overall average price decrease of 12%, with terraced houses facing a significant 39% drop. Detached houses also saw a 9% decrease.
North West: While the overall average price decreased by 7%, the decline was most pronounced in flat/maisonette prices, dropping by 17%. Detached houses also experienced an 8% decrease.
South East: With an overall average price decrease of 11%, detached houses saw the most significant drop at 17%. Semi-detached houses also experienced a substantial decline of 9%.
South West: The 8% decrease in overall average prices was driven by a 25% drop in terraced house prices. Detached houses also saw a notable decline of 13%.
Unknown: The Unknown category experienced a 16% decrease in overall average prices, with terraced houses facing the most significant drop at 49%.
Wales: The overall average price in Wales decreased by 9%, with terraced houses experiencing the most significant drop at 33%. Detached houses also saw a notable decline of 10%.
West Midlands: While the overall average price decreased by 1%, terraced houses experienced the most significant drop at 24%. Detached houses also saw an 8% decline.
Yorks and Humber: The 4% decrease in overall average prices was driven by a 29% drop in terraced house prices. Detached houses, however, saw a 10% increase.
Key Insights From The UK Land Registry Data
The Land Registry house prices sold data reveals substantial regional and property type variations in average values across the UK. Greater London stands out with a significant downturn, particularly evident in detached homes ( -£484,230) and flats/maisonettes ( -£114,101). In contrast, the East Midlands displays a positive trend, notably in flat/maisonette values (£9,328).
One important caveat to consider is the limited sample size resulting from low transactional values amid a sluggish market and reporting delays. This becomes particularly pronounced when breaking down the data by both region and property type. For instance, as of the current report, only 19 detached sales have been recorded for Greater London in September 2023.
That this is an initial sample of house prices sold and will be subject to change as the UK Land Registry acquires more data. This can take 9-12 months before data for all sold properties is processed by the Land Registry. For complete transparency I’ve included the September 2023 transactions below. Remember, you can also find out which towns and city’s are experiencing the greatest falls with this UK house price map.
Read: 5 Reasons House Prices Will Keep Falling In The UK
UK Year-On-Year Average House Price Falls Of 12%
This Land Registry House prices paid data suggests a widespread decline in property values, with the South East and East Anglia experiencing considerable negative impacts. These insights underscore the dynamic nature of the UK housing market, influenced by diverse regional factors and property types.
Overall, across the UK, the overall average price decreased by 12%, with detached houses experiencing the most significant drop at 16%. Semi-detached houses also saw a notable decline of 17%. The average prices for all property types and regions collectively showed a decline of 12% in 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
These detailed insights highlight the varying impacts on different regions and property types, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes in the UK housing market from September 2022 to September 2023.
Official House Prices Sold Data Map
Want to know more about house prices falls in England and Wales? Click here to reveal the map showcasing where house prices are falling in your local area and stay ahead of the real estate trends with our exclusive insights! This uses official HM Land Registry house prices sold data. You can use this map to deep dive down into Local Authority level and find out where house prices are falling the fastest. You won’t find this map anywhere else.
Read More About How We Got Here:
It has taken almost 2 years for the housing market crash to gain momentum. That’s because we started at the very end of a late stage housing bubble in January 2022. The market had been soaring, and I felt us just go over the edge of the top of the market. It wasn’t until mid-2022 when the first cracks started to appear and from there, macro-economics have eroded away at the fundamentals propping up the market. Now the house price crash is well underway:
Warning Signs: The first time I called out the UK was in a late-stage bubble [Jan-2022]
Sounding The Alarm: The first time I outlined house price falls over around 31% [December 2022]
Danger, Danger: The Fuse Is Lit For The Mortgage Timebomb [Jul-2023]
The Calm Before The Storm: The UK Housing Market Becomes A Winter Ghost Town [Oct-2023]
